The economy was supposed to crumble. The trade war was expected to escalate out of control. Markets were forecast to plunge. None of that has happened. But Trump’s early trade victory may be short-lived.

"We still believe the most likely outcome is slow growth and firm inflation: Not a recession, but a backdrop where the adverse effects of trade and immigration controls on growth outweigh the boost from deregulation and fiscal largesse," Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Zezas wrote.

U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff decisions since he took office on January 20 have shocked financial markets and sent a wave of uncertainty through the global economy. Here is a timeline of the major developments: February 1 - Trump imposes 25% tariffs on Mexican and most Canadian imports and 10% on goods from China,