Now that we've explored the risk premium models and their challenges, it's time to look at them with actual data. The first step is to find a reasonable range of expected equity returns.

Despite the weak risk premium, stocks have had the upper hand on bonds this year. The S&P 500 has risen 17% due to cooling inflation and the surge in interest in AI, while both 2-year and 10-year ...

The equity risk premium (ERP) for S&P 500 stocks has hit zero for the first time in over 22 years. Economist David Rosenberg warns that investors are now “paying to take on equity risk instead ...

The market risk premium has risen due to various top-down reasons. The risk-free rate's increase phases out much of the equity risk premium's gains. However, credit spreads are of concern.