The measurement directly relates to the size of your sample, with larger sample sizes yielding more accurate results. You have to exercise some caution, while this tool is useful, it can lead to ...

Prob chart. For both lines, the slope is greatest near 50%. Reading off the chart, the probability of winning with a poll of sample size 1100 is around 25% if the poll result was 49%, but improves ...

How do I know if a candidate’s lead is ‘outside the margin of error’? News reports about polling will often say that a candidate’s lead is “outside the margin of error” to indicate that a candidate’s ...

A poll’s margin of error, sample size matter a lot: Here’s why Published: Oct. 26, 2024, 8:25 a.m. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump speak to supporters at rallies this week.

Serious polling requires careful data collection and careful adjustment. It doesn't mean much to say your poll is a "probability sample" when your nonresponse rate is 90 percent.

The idea of a random sample is that everyone in the larger population -- the group whose opinions the pollster wants to determine -- has a known probability of being chosen for the random sample.

Polling organizations, by contrast, often present survey estimates by themselves and only mention the survey’s overall margin of sampling error, often at the bottom of charts or press releases. Both ...

Polls are catnip to political kitties, but Wednesday's MPR/Humphrey Institute gubernatorial survey had political and journalism insiders coughing up hairballs this morning. The figure that jumped ...

That margin means that if you were to conduct this same survey with many samples of the same size, you could expect between 40.2 percent and 47.8 percent of likely voters to have a positive view ...