The impact probability describes how likely a hazardous asteroid is to hit Earth. For example, if the impact probability is 1%, it means that in 1 of 100 cases, it hits Earth.

Any uncertainty in the calculation of the object’s orbit causes variations in the predicted solution. Instead of one precise orbit, the calculation usually gives scientists a cloud of its possible ...

But while the probability of hitting Earth went down, the probability of the asteroid hitting the moon started increasing. It went up to 1.7% on Feb. 24 . As of April 2, it is 3.8% .

The impact probability describes how likely a hazardous asteroid is to hit Earth. For example, if the impact probability is 1%, it means that in 1 of 100 cases, it hits Earth.