I’m suggesting that a third demographic transition model will be necessary to explain what is likely to happen in coming decades. The first demographic transition.

Demographic transition, explained The big thing we know now about population that was unclear in the mid-20th century is something called the “demographic transition.” ...

The blue line in Figure 3 shows the model-implied path of the real rate in response to the demographic transition. This baseline shows that r-star progressively falls from 3% in 1990 to approximately ...